Decision Making Black Holes

A Funny Thing Happens at the Forum

Meetings are one of the most common decision making ‘forums’ we are all regularly involved in. In fact one in five company meetings we take is to make a decision. As a way of making decisions though, they can be problematic. Once the meeting has concluded, the connection between information shared, decisions made and actions taken can be weak even lost. It’s as if the meeting itself were a decision making black hole.

Some Decisions are More Equal Than Others

Some decision making meetings are impromptu for making a timely, tactical decision quickly. Others are regular, formal and arranged around the ‘drum beat’ or ‘cadence’ of a business to make more strategic decisions. The more strategic the decisions and longer term the impact the less frequent the forum so a Senior or Executive Management Team may only meet quarterly for a business review (QBR)

How a QBR ‘Rolls’

A typical QBR will see Senior Managers sharing results in PowerPoint, possibly with financial results in spread-sheets which I would hope have at least been extracted from a Business Intelligence application.

If the SMT are reasonably well organised, they will summarise their conclusions and actions in meeting minutes. The meeting minutes will be typed up by an assistant in a word document and then distributed in email.

Throughout, they will all have been keeping individual notes so will walk out with these in their daybooks. The most senior manager in the room might not do this particularly if it’s their assistant who’s taking the minutes.

Later, actions from daybooks and minutes are likely transferred to individuals to-do lists and all follow-up will be conducted in email and phone calls.

An Implosion of Information, Conclusion and Decision

So let’s recap. Critical decisions about how resources are going to be allocated will be discussed in a ‘QBR’ and yet the artefacts of this critical decision making forum are scattered into Word documents, excel spread-sheets, emails and outlook tasks. Tiny fragments of the discussion, information, conclusion, decisions and activities implode around the organisation. To be frank, the team are now only going to make progress because the forum was recent and can be relatively easily recalled.

Of course, once time or people move on so does the corporate memory of the decision. Conversations begin with ‘what did we agree to do about that cost over-run?’ or ‘why did we say we were ok with the revenue performance in Q1?’

Executive Attention Deficit Syndrome

Many executives complain of a syndrome that feels like ADS. This is because the more senior the manager the more things they will probably have to deal with at an increasingly superficial level. A functional head will probably spend no more than 15 minutes on any one thing. To productively make decisions they will need to be able to have the background, status and related information to hand so that they can deal with it quickly and move on to the next thing. Decision making black holes contribute to this feeling of EADS.

CDM and Corporate Memory

Corporate Decision Making platforms will be successful when they connect;

• Decisions
• Information on which the decision was made
• Insight derived from the information
• Actions taken on the decision
• Results of the actions

This means total recall of corporate decisions good and bad so that, over time, decisions can be recalled, evaluated, re-used or improved. A far cry from current decision making forums which whilst functional are inherently flawed, fragmented and are not improving the timeliness and quality of decisions in our organisations.

Collaborative Business Intelligence and Managing Agreement, Not Conflict

Before you Set Off

Home of the Paradox

Abilene, Texas seems to be an entirely reasonable place. Jessica Simpson (Daisy to Johnny Knoxville's Luke Duke) was born there and I understand that the museums are free during their monthly Artwalk event. There is even a Country and Western song about Abilene which, last time I checked, there isn't about my home town in Surrey. It seems unfair then, that the place has a whole paradox named after it.

“Cohen contends that managing agreement is the single most pressing issue facing organisations today”

The Abilene paradox describes a particular problem with group decision making. and was introduced by a management expert, Jerry B Harvey, in his article The Abilene Paradox: The Management of Agreement.

The Long and Winding ...
In the article Jerry described something that happened when they were visiting family in Coleman Texas. The family were playing domino's on the porch and enjoying iced lemonade when Jerry's father-in-law suggests that they take a trip to Abilene, some 53 miles north, for dinner.

It was over a 100 degrees outside and Jerry really didn't like the idea of a 106 mile round trip in an old Buick without air conditioning but Jerry’s wife responded before he had time to say anything with, "Sounds like a great idea. Jerry felt out of step but thought he might still avoid it by adding ‘Sounds good to me … if your mother wants to go’. However, Jerry’s mother-in-law then says, "Of course I want to go. I haven't been to Abilene in a long time".

So, they were set. The drive is hot, dusty, and long. When they arrive at the cafeteria, the food is is less than average. They arrive back home four hours later, exhausted.

The Game of Recrimination
To be sociable and break the silence as they are cooling down after the ride, Jerry says ‘It was a great trip, wasn’t it’ Jerry’s mother-in-law says that, actually, she would rather have stayed home, but went along since the other three were so enthusiastic.

Jerry’s wife says, "I just went along to keep you happy. I would have had to be crazy to want to go out in the heat like that." Jerry’s father-in-law then says that he only suggested it because he thought the others might be bored.

The group then did what all groups do in these situations, they played the game of recrimination. No prizes, none of the time.  When they couldn't identify a suitable culprit they sat back, puzzled and perplexed as to why they all decided to take a trip which none of them wanted to.  They would actually all have preferred to stay on the porch and relax.

We tend to think that the biggest challenge in organisational decision making is managing conflict but what the Abilene paradox describes is the difficulty in managing agreement. I’ll say that again … not managing conflict but dealing with decisions when we agree. It's absurd but then again, that is exactly what a paradox is.

Are we there yet?
Cohen contends that managing agreement is the single most pressing issue facing organisations today.

There are a number of psychological themes at play including what Cohen describes as Action Anxiety (the need to 'do something') and Fear of Separation (the need 'to be in agreement with the group').

However, at the core of avoiding the Paradox is communication. A lack of clarity about the intent of the group and the preference of the individuals. It should be really easy to avoid coming out of a meeting where everyone appeared to agree but individuals whisper 'that will never fly' but it isn't.

The increasing adoption of collaborative decision making tools will, of course, introduce some hitherto unknown problems but they will provide an opaque forum for individuals to be clear about their views.

Decision making forums where the contributions are considered, clear, balanced and accurately recorded are less likely to result in a 106 round trip in the heat. Of course, some of the issues are cultural but structured, collaborative decision making is an opportunity for;

 

• Clear and Considered Input. Interestingly one of the most potent techniques for getting individuals to put more thought into their contribution to a decision is to ask them to write it down. What's more it's on the record so they're committed.
• All Views Heard, None Drowned Out. In a meeting you would think that we would all use the one mouth and two ears in proportion but that is not always the case. A CDM Forum means that all participants can record their view, everyone can be heard without interruption.
• One Memory of the Decision. Take a look at your next meeting and everyone is making their own notes based on their own view of the meeting. If the meeting is facilitated and someone is recording the views of the group on a whiteboard then we see different behaviours.  This is what CDM forums do too.

 

The final mile
So if you want to enjoy free art on the first Thursday of the month then Abilene is the place to be. However, if it's a hot and dusty day and you're enjoying the shade then before you set off check that the group really want to go, that everyone has been heard and is committed and finally that you have air conditioning.